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General Election December 2019

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We looked across our data on Parliamentary Constituencies to specifically analyse the General Election 2019 through the lens of County Court Judgments.

Judgment data is an indicator for the state of the economy and for household finance.

The analysis was telling of the rhetoric’s here post-election.

The 57 Swing Constituencies

Of the 57 swing constituencies that the Conservative Party gained, the majority of them had been experiencing higher levels of financial distress than the national average since the last general election in 2017.

This was also reflected in external data sources of over-indebtedness and levels of those claiming Job Seekers Allowance.

The Rule Breakers

However, there were 10 rule breakers that were seeing the inverse of these indicators compared to the other swing constituencies. When looking more in depth at these 10, it was clear that Brexit had played a fundamental role in the vote.

Taking these rule breakers in isolation, all 10 had seen the biggest increases in vote share being given to the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. Further, the average Leave vote from the 2016 referendum was 56%, 4 points higher than the national average.

The full report can be found here.